FEEDING HUBRIS – The Drums of War Are Beating, Again……
‘Tis the season of insanity. Whether it’s the delightful Linsanity, or the delirious proclamations of the candidates in an increasingly desperate contention for Republican nomination for president. Or the insaner and maddening musings of downside-of-free-speech Mr. Limbaugh. What has got me boiling this season is the by-the-spades bullshit of Iran’s nuclear threat being fed to the US public by the all-powerful Israel lobby, augmented by stir-seeking media. Same bullshit was fed to the US last time when we rushed head long into attacking Iraq.
Thankfully this time skepticism is greater. Even Israeli propagandists like Jeff Goldberg, seem unsure. Self-proclaimed atheist, yet curiously Zionist, Bill Mar was also skeptical when he interviewed the telegenic (and talking-point head) Israeli ambassador to the US. They have good reason. We were all burned by the Iraq war when we gave too much benefit of the doubt to the government. I remember I was in South Africa to watch the cricket world cup in 2003. I met up with many college friends from Pakistan, who had arrived from different parts of the world for a long due get-together in that beautiful country, and watch the favorite Pakistan pastime (other than drawing room gossip).
Arriving from New York, I became the token “American” to be skewered over the about-to-be-initiated Iraq invasion. I gave too much benefit of the doubt to the govt. “They must know more than what they are telling us. Iraq must have deadly weapons with credible plan to use them directly or indirectly against the US or its interests abroad. Otherwise how can the govt initiate such a major war in which large number of innocent people will likely die.”
I was wrong. The govt believed the hubris it wanted to. And it was fed hubris by the buckets from all the vested interests. Israel being on top of the list. This time, thankfully, public is more skeptical. And we have a President who is more composed and perceptive of the complicated world around us than his predecessor. Thankfully this time the onus to prove the threat will be on the govt. But that still doesn’t mean that Israel will not attack Iran, even if it does so alone. US interests will be a casualty in this war, as it will have to provide unqualified, even if just verbal, support.
And why are we fighting with Iran anyway, considering they released American hostages a few decades ago. Yes, their regime is despotic and composed of religious fanatics. Yet there is scant evidence that Iran poses any national security interest to the US. It might pose threat to Israel, but that threat is merely strategic, and far from existential.
Besides, a threat to Israel is not a threat to the US. If Israel attacks Iran, it will do little to bolster US security. It will only harm it, as the US domestic politics will ensure that is stands by Israel’s side during any such undertaking, and hence attracts the usual wrath of US flag burning Arab & Muslim streets. US and Israel’s interests are not the same, and in this case might be diametrically opposite.
In the end, fate of this war might just be decided by any technical hurdles Israel might face - whether it’s the ability to refuel planes on the long ride, or ability to penetrate Iran’s defenses by the available bunker-buster bombs. But eventually Israel’s quest to maintain an absolute and unquestionable military and nuclear superiority over all of its neighbors is perhaps not sustainable. If Israel attacks and fails to deal a meaningful blow to Iran’s nuclear plans, realization of that might set in sooner than it would have wanted. At some point it will have to start aggressive diplomacy, rather than aggressive preemptive wars. Time for that realization might be now.
Thankfully this time skepticism is greater. Even Israeli propagandists like Jeff Goldberg, seem unsure. Self-proclaimed atheist, yet curiously Zionist, Bill Mar was also skeptical when he interviewed the telegenic (and talking-point head) Israeli ambassador to the US. They have good reason. We were all burned by the Iraq war when we gave too much benefit of the doubt to the government. I remember I was in South Africa to watch the cricket world cup in 2003. I met up with many college friends from Pakistan, who had arrived from different parts of the world for a long due get-together in that beautiful country, and watch the favorite Pakistan pastime (other than drawing room gossip).
Arriving from New York, I became the token “American” to be skewered over the about-to-be-initiated Iraq invasion. I gave too much benefit of the doubt to the govt. “They must know more than what they are telling us. Iraq must have deadly weapons with credible plan to use them directly or indirectly against the US or its interests abroad. Otherwise how can the govt initiate such a major war in which large number of innocent people will likely die.”
I was wrong. The govt believed the hubris it wanted to. And it was fed hubris by the buckets from all the vested interests. Israel being on top of the list. This time, thankfully, public is more skeptical. And we have a President who is more composed and perceptive of the complicated world around us than his predecessor. Thankfully this time the onus to prove the threat will be on the govt. But that still doesn’t mean that Israel will not attack Iran, even if it does so alone. US interests will be a casualty in this war, as it will have to provide unqualified, even if just verbal, support.
And why are we fighting with Iran anyway, considering they released American hostages a few decades ago. Yes, their regime is despotic and composed of religious fanatics. Yet there is scant evidence that Iran poses any national security interest to the US. It might pose threat to Israel, but that threat is merely strategic, and far from existential.
Besides, a threat to Israel is not a threat to the US. If Israel attacks Iran, it will do little to bolster US security. It will only harm it, as the US domestic politics will ensure that is stands by Israel’s side during any such undertaking, and hence attracts the usual wrath of US flag burning Arab & Muslim streets. US and Israel’s interests are not the same, and in this case might be diametrically opposite.
In the end, fate of this war might just be decided by any technical hurdles Israel might face - whether it’s the ability to refuel planes on the long ride, or ability to penetrate Iran’s defenses by the available bunker-buster bombs. But eventually Israel’s quest to maintain an absolute and unquestionable military and nuclear superiority over all of its neighbors is perhaps not sustainable. If Israel attacks and fails to deal a meaningful blow to Iran’s nuclear plans, realization of that might set in sooner than it would have wanted. At some point it will have to start aggressive diplomacy, rather than aggressive preemptive wars. Time for that realization might be now.
posted by madinmanhattan | 11:18 AM
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